To: linux-arm@vger.rutgers.edu, general@netwinder.org Subject: Intel, StrongARM, Linux, WinCE, Red Hat, Corel From: Jim Pick <jim@jimpick.com> Date: 03 Oct 1998 20:03:34 -0700 Corporate giants are stirring. Here's one possible scenario... A few years ago, Intel and Microsoft were really freaked out when Java appeared out of nowhere, and Larry Ellison let loose with the "Network Computer" idea. Although NCs haven't really become a reality yet, the idea did represent a fundamental change in direction for the industry - and a huge potential threat to the Wintel market. Intel and Microsoft weren't prepared for that. Since then, the $1000 Wintel machine has gained dominance at the retail level, Linux is starting to look like a threat to Microsoft, and Intel has dropped from 85% to 45% market share. But Intel and Microsoft aren't stupid - since their initial surprise, they have quietly made moves to have new products in place that can cannibalize their existing products. Think of it as "insurance", in the event that they start losing market share fast. The sub-$500 computer segment is going to happen - but it won't be dominated by larger-die-size iX86 compatible chips like the Celeron or highly profitable per-unit OS's like Win98. Intel quietly moved and purchased the StrongARM design and fabs from Digital (now Compaq). Microsoft sunk a lot of money into a complete ground-up rewrite of their OS for low-end machines - the result being the Windows CE operating system. What's Intel's next move? Well, Intel makes a lot of motherboards - so I wouldn't be surprised to see them come out with some ARM-based motherboards for the clone market (perhaps using the NLX form factor, or smaller). There isn't much of a demand for these yet, but there definitely could be. With Intel's support for Linux (via their investment in Red Hat), plus Microsoft's WinCE - there are now "safe" OS's available that would make general-purpose sub-$500 ARM-based machines a viable product. What about Microsoft? Well, they really need to kill Win98, which has too much backwards-compatibility baggage and crud that has accumulated over the years. They've invested relatively little in it recently - it's just a cash cow which they are going to take out to pasture and shoot fairly soon. They've got two modern OS's positioned to succeed it - WinNT and WinCE. WinNT is the safe bet - it's the heavy and bloated solution for high-end iX86 machines (with a large measure of Win98 compatibility). WinCE is the lightweight, clean, completely incompatible OS which will replace Win98 on the extreme low end. When Linux inevitably begins to challenge Microsoft, WinCE will be their extreme low-cost answer. They'll try to postpone that day as long as possible so they can sell as much WinNT as possible, which is a much more profitable product for them. I think that in 2 years, these sub-$500 machines will become mainstream, and LCD screens will get really cheap as well. You'll start seeing Linux available pre-installed on these machines, as well as WinCE, which the manufacturers will be able to license for negligable cost. There will still be a healthy market for iX86 machines running Win98/NT though. IMHO, Intel has the low-cost manufacturing and iX86-leveraged marketing muscle to ensure the StrongARM is *THE CHIP* that the cloners use for the low end machines. I believe Microsoft will jump on the bandwagon here as well - pushing the StrongARM as the volume platform for running WinCE on the low-end. After long last, the StrongARM is a RISC design that Microsoft can push without angering Intel. WinCE will only become a viable replacement for Win98 when you can buy shrink-wrapped apps for it. The big problem with WinCE right now is that it runs on so many processors. Currently, if you buy a WinCE pocket PC, handheld PC, set-top box (ie. WebTV), or one of the upcoming Auto PCs, typically the only place you can get additional WinCE applications for your specific, proprietary architecture is from the manufacturer who made your particular model of hardware. But when Intel uses it's muscle to make the StrongARM the dominant WinCE platform used by the cloners for low end clones - you are going to see Microsoft pushing it's ISV community to market shrink-wrapped WinCE apps for the StrongARM. There is a bit of a chicken-and-egg aspect to all this. Intel and Microsoft don't want to cannibalize their highly profitable iX86/Win98 lines until they have to. But they will, before the competition does it for them. With the StrongARM and WinCE, they are well positioned to maintain their market share. WinCE's main competitor looks like it will be Linux. The StrongARM will be challenged by a wide array of low-end RISC designs (ie. MIPS, Sparc, Alpha, PowerPC, or maybe even TransMeta). Corel's NetWinder may be the first product to usher in a new era of low-cost PC designs. Although it's way above the sub-$500 price point, it's still a viable StrongARM-based Linux platform. Intel, Corel and Red Hat will work together to make it a real platform. Good software (including commercial stuff, like WordPerfect) will become widely available for it. Intel may follow this up by pushing out StrongARM motherboards to it's current iX86 manufacturers who will be able to sell viable Linux-based products. This will likely coincide with a big Microsoft push for a WinCE port that runs on the Intel StrongARM motherboards. Microsoft will also push it's ISV community to support the StrongARM/WinCE and produce shrink-wrapped apps. If this comes to be, it seems likely that Linux could become extremely popular on the StrongARM in sub-$500 PCs available through retail channels (sharing the market with WinCE). This would be great for Corel, who would have a good suite of Linux/StrongARM applications ready-to-bundle with these cheap Linux machines. I'm sure Microsoft would also bundle MS-Office "lite" with the WinCE boxes. In short, customers will buy a $500 office suite, and get the hardware for free. The more profitable Windows 98 and NT will still be the dominant players in the traditional iX86-based PC segment. Linux could be very popular at the low-end, where Microsoft will have to give away WinCE for next to nothing. It also means that the StrongARM port of Linux could become even more popular than the iX86 port. Of course, this is all contingent on how seriously Intel is going to push the StrongARM. What does everyone else think of this scenario? Likely? Or impossible? Cheers, - Jim unsubscribe: body of `unsubscribe linux-arm' to majordomo@vger.rutgers.edu