Linux at the Chasm

October 14, ALS, report from Tim Fournet, LWN volunteer

Don Rosenberg started the Business discussions of the Linux Showcase with his 
presentation "Linux at the Chasm."  In it, he describes the major steps of what
he calls the Technology Adoption Cycle and where Linux fits today.  He gives an
accurate depiction of where Linux is being used now and how it will expand into
more areas.  According to Rosenberg, Linux adoption is presently at a 'chasm'
which must be overcome before it can reach a majority dominance.  He mentions
several conditions which must be met to reach the next step of market share.
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Mr. Rosenberg breaks down the Technology Adoption Cycle into three
major steps.  The first stage is that of the "innovators."  Innovators
are the first developers and users of a new technology.  In our case
these are the people who "sneak" the first Linux installations into
their office, or the students who first install it in their labs or at
home, or the power users who just want more control over their
computers.  Sooner or later these innovators get noticed, usually by
their own advocacy of the new technology.  Those who notice them, the
Early Adopters, or "visionaries," see the advantages of the new
system, and are eager to embrace it.  Rosenberg describes the majority
of visionaries as large companies such as IBM and Compaq.  These
innovators are usually seeking a new advantage over their competitors,
and see this as an opportunity.  The final stage he covered in his
talk is the early majority phase.  He describes the early majority as
pragmatists.  They want stability and interoperability.  They really
want to do what everybody else is doing, and they want to see multiple
vendors and avenues of support.  They are not impressed by the non-
money-making side of advocacy.

-- 

Right now, we're at the great Chasm between the Early Adopters and the
Early Majority.  An important step that brought us this far is
referred to as "the niche."  Niche products dominate small markets but
provide us with the real-world trials and facts that show the
capabilities of Linux.  The "big fish in a small pond" accomplishments
and stories are spread and drum up support in more areas.  Rosenberg
then lists some of the places where Linux is being used now and how
these examples mean greater things for the future of Linux and Open
Source.  Many ISPs are using Linux because of its low cost,
flexibility, and control.  Linux's file, print, and application
sharing abilities are giving it an edge over WindowsNT and commercial
UNIXes--Compaq is cross training its Tru64 staff on Linux, an
indication of the possiblity that Tru64 may be completely abandoned in
favor of a pure Linux OS.  He mentions how Linux is being used in
imbedded and point-of-sale systems, where the lack of need to worry
about licenses is by itself a great relief to administrators.

--

Rosenberg gives us some signs to look for that will indicate that
"we've won."  He believes that the "wizards and high elves will sail
west", meaning that the leaders such as Linus and Alan Cox will feel
they've completed their work and will move on to other projects.  He
believes that a continued rise in the stock prices of companies like
Corel will be important indicators.  Rosenberg believes that at least
for the time being that RedHat's stock performance should serve to
watchers as a proxy for the success of other members of the
communitiy.  He states that the appearance multiple hardware,
software, and support vendors is another important indicator of
widespread adoption.