From:	 Lance Spitzner <lance@honeynet.org>
To:	 Incidents Mailing List <INCIDENTS@securityfocus.com>
Subject: Honeynet Project -> Know Your Enemy: Statistics
Date:	 Tue, 24 Jul 2001 20:57:16 -0500 (CDT)

The Honeynet Project is excited to announce the release of a
new paper, "Know Your Enemy: Statistics".  The paper is based
on eleven months of data we have collected, and covers
two areas.

1.  Aggressiveness
------------------
We show a variety of statistics, based on eleven months of
Honeynet data,  that demonstrate just how aggressive the
blackhat community can be.  Even more revealing is it appears
the threat is getting worse.


2.  Early Warning and Prediction
--------------------------------
We present proof of concept that attacks can be predicted.
The research is still preliminary, but based on statistical
analysis, 7 out of 8 attacks could be predicted last year.
Two different team members took two different statistical
approaches, yet they findings were almost identical.  Most
of the attacks made against the Honeynet could be predicted
two to three days in advance.


As this research is part of the Honeynet Project, all eleven
months of data are also publicly released for review and
further analysis.

  Know Your Enemy: Statistics
  http://project.honeynet.org/papers/stats/

Thanks!

lance


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